Amazing news. As you may have heard this morning reform is back leading the news. We’re going to get our referendum on voting reform, and we’ll get it next May.

This is a huge victory in our fight to fix our broken politics, and it’s thanks to you that we’ve won it. All the petitions, all the pressure we’ve put on our leaders these past months – it’s all paid off.

But – and maybe you guessed I was about to say this – our work isn’t done.

Today, we won a battle for a referendum on electoral reform. So today is when our fight for a “YES” vote begins. Please pitch in today to help fund it:

Vote 4 Change Donate Now

This past May, thousands of us voted with our heads, not our hearts, to deliver this chance for reform.

Before next May, we’ve got to do everything we can to make sure our fellow voters join us in taking that chance – so none of us ever have to compromise our principles at the ballot box again.

You know better than anyone that our victory today didn’t just happen. We made it happen through months of hard campaigning. The same is true of next May’s referendum: we’ll only achieve a YES vote if we work for it, full stop.

Can you pitch in now? No matter what you can afford, your donation will make a difference:

http://voteforachange.co.uk/ActNow

Thanks again for everything you’ve done.

Willie

Tick Tock

Clock’s ticking, Cameron.

Since the Queen’s speech last week, 3,500 people have joined you in co-signing our letter to David Cameron to demand a concrete timetable for an electoral reform referendum.

We’re delivering the letter on Friday, and we need to hit 5,000 signatures before then.

Can you help by asking your friends to join you in signing it? Spread the word now:

We Need a Timetable for Reform

Three weeks into Cameron’s tenure as PM, he’s yet to move an inch forward to keep the referendum promise that helped him build a coalition government.

Three weeks in, is he already forgetting about those promises of change he made to the country?

Help us issue a reminder to Cameron that we need to move forward on reform. It can’t wait, and our patience is running out.

Pass on the link to five friends so we can hit 5,000 by Friday:

http://www.voteforachange.co.uk/5000

Thanks,
Willie

When does silence speak more loudly than speech?

In today’s Queen’s speech, it certainly did. What Cameron & co. chose to leave out of the speech says more about their plans for this new government than the words the Queen actually uttered today.

And what they left out was a concrete timetable for the referendum we’ve been promised on electoral reform.

Co-sign our letter to David Cameron, requesting a meeting to hammer out a timetable for the referendum the entire country’s waiting for:

We Need a Timetable for Reform

Referendum was part of the price David Cameron paid for a coalition government, and now the invoice is coming due.

We don’t need more vague promises that he’ll deliver a referendum. We need a date. We need logistics to be put into place. We need action.

It’s no secret that Cameron and the Conservatives are only going to deliver a referendum because pressure from voters like us is forcing them to.

We’re so close to reaching our goal and getting a chance for real change — but to make it happen, we’ve got to keep after Cameron to make good on his promises.

Co-sign our letter to Cameron now, seeking a concrete timetable for the referendum.

Thanks,
Willie

People have become used to profligate government spending and easy credit. Even at the height of the bubble Labour were still spending more than they were rising. The party is now over. Things are going to be tough in the UK over the life of the next parliament. There will be pain.

The UK needs a government capable of good leadership that will be seen to spread the pain around fairly and honestly. Under the circumstances, this means a coalition government.

New Politics for the UK

Before the election, Nick Clegg said in the event of a hung parliament he would talk first to the party with the largest share of the vote and the greatest number of seats. He was correct in this. He talked first to the Conservatives.

He was also correct in keeping his options open with back channel talks with Labour. Labour were sounding out other smaller parties including the Scottish and Welsh Nationalists, for a Rainbow Coalition.

But the proposed Rainbow Coalition was never credible because:

• Labour back benchers made it clear that they would not deliver any commitment made by the Labour leadership.
• That the Nationalist parties were intent of protecting their own fiefs at the expense of the English.
• Many in the Labour party who saw a period in opposition when they can elect a new leader and blame all the coming pain on the Conservatives and LibDems the sensible option.
• If there was one thing that the voters had clearly indicated it was that they wanted change.
• Labour would be more interested in the coming leadership battle than coalition government.

Already Some Gains

By negotiating this coalition the LibDems have disproved claims that a hung parliament would lead to market meltdown, debt downgrading and the IMF being called in. They have strengthened the case for electoral reform.

This deal also disproves the theory that PR would remove Conservative influence from power for ever, a major factor in Conservative party opposition to changes in the voting system.

What Next?

Coalition politics is about accepting that you will not get everything that you want. It is now for the partners to show coalition politics can work at Westminster. It already works in the various devolved bodies in the UK

A successful coalition could undermine some of the criticisms thrown at the LibDems by showing they have leaders of substance capable of making hard decisions. If successful it will further strengthen the case for electoral reform.

Politics is often about taking the least bad path. The decision to go into coalition government with the Conservative party was the best decision for the LibDems and the country under the circumstances.

There are many dangers for the LibDems in this coalition. If things go badly, then they will face punishment by the voters at the next election no matter the electoral system.

But I choose to believe that this coalition was negotiated in good faith by both sides in the national interest. That it is the only possible outcome from last week’s election able to address the deficit fairly whilst moving on electoral reform.

Gordon Brown No Return

In FireFox: Left click the link and select “Save Link As…” Upload the mp3 file to your mobile phone to use it as a ring tone. Annoy all Labour supporters in hearing distance whenever your phone rings.

Pass it on.

The ring tone can also be downloaded for free direct to your phone from Phonzoo. You will have to register with the site first.

Thanks to The Online Activist for the heads up on political ring tones.

The protest songs of the mobile age, political ring tones have become an effective method to deliver a political message. A short statement from a politician or public figure, the ring tone reminds all who hears of a famous quote or misquote.

They are easy to create and distribute. If the ring tone goes viral it can be very influential. In the Philippines 2005 the opponents of President Gloria Arroyo turned a censored recording into a ring tone that for a short while became the most downloaded tone in the world.

Oooops!

Polls

Most polls have correction factors applied to the raw data. These correction factors are derived from previous elections actual results and the polled data. Feed back factors are calculated that, if applied, would have seen the polls accurately reflect the real outcome.

Pollsters then retrospectively rationalize the feed back factors created. The bottom line is no-one knows for sure why the raw data varies from how people actually vote.

This work fine if the situation has not greatly changed since the last election. This is clearly not the case in the present election. Hence any poll should be taken with a pinch of salt.

All pollsters know how unreliable polls are in the present changed political climate. Anyone making categorical claims based on any single poll is part of a party political spin machine. No matter what their official job title.

From what I am hearing on the doorstep there are still a lot of undecided voters. No opinion poll I have seen are displaying the figure of undecided. It would be very interesting to see what they are.

Wtih even postal voters waiting on Thursday night’s debate before making their mind up, the election is still wide open.

This has arguably served Britain well in the last century, when politics split the country in two. In modern Britain this is no longer the case. Opinion polls are currently showing a three way split between the main parties with smaller parties picking up about 10% of the vote.

The present system may deliver the ridiculous result that the party with the smallest share of the votes (less than 30% cast) could and up with the most seats in Parliament.

Good government is one that has a clear democratic mandate. Not one where power is delivered by an historic quirk. A new system is required as soon as possible.

The last government destroyed the public finances. It was running a budget deficit even at the peak of the economic bubble. Now the bubble has burst and the time has come to pay the bill.

The country will face some very tough choices after the general election. The next government will need to fill the gaping hole in the national accounts. It will have to create broad consensus on how the spending cuts and tax rises needed will be implemented.

The pain must be seen to be spread evenly. One party with only 30% of the electorate’s backing will not be able to do this. If the Conservatives or Labour defend only their traditional special interests there will be strife.

A fairer system where the number of seats in Parliament accurately reflects the number of votes cast is known as Proportional Representation (PR). Many countries have it. It works elsewhere and there is no reason it can not work in Westminster.

But PR requires a maturity that few Westminster based politicians have demonstrated. They will have to first let go of their sense of entitlement and make a real commitment to the public interest. They will have to genuinely serve all the public, not just their favourite special interest groups.

Think what an election would be like if parties had to convince you to vote for them, rather than vote against the other side. Positive leadership rather than fear mongering and mud slinging.

Such a change is resisted by those who have nothing to offer but fear and smears. Their arguments against PR are the usual fear mongering, misrepresentations, false analogies and false choices. They all boil down to thinly disguised self-interest.

The usual self-interested whining of a discredited duopoly that has nothing else to offer.

I watched the debate. Nick Clegg certainly came off best. But was it worth such a huge leap? He was good, but not THAT good.

So why are the LibDems now leading in some opinion polls? Previously the other two parties had presented the election as contest between themselves and no one else. A false choice. But with Nick Clegg showing himself to be a credible leader, the LibDems have become a real alternative.

Voters are looking to the LibDems as the anti-establishment party with a real chance of shaking up the old order. And the old order needs shaking up. Voters are angry about the expenses scandal, and want real change, not the opposite side of a discredited duopoly.

All it took was one good performance from Nick Clegg, and voters saw a way to punish the establishment for their collective disgraceful behaviour. If the surge was about policy and personality this would not have happened. But it’s not, it’s about “kicking the bums out”.

Tory strategists do not understand this. By reverting fear mongering and muck spreading all they are doing is showing voters their true selves. They may talk change, but their actions say business as usual.

The hope of real change will trump fear mongering and muck spreading.

Ken Clarke

In this morning’s press conference, former chancellor Kenneth Clarke let slip how little the Tory party has changed.

With the British electorate looking more and more likely to dump the discredited two party system, the shadow business secretary stooped to using fear to prop up the Tory vote.

He claimed if the electorate fail give one party an outright majority,”Bond markets won’t wait” and “Sterling will wobble.”

The Guardian reported him saying:

If the British don’t decide to put in a government with a working majority, and the markets think that we can’t tackle our debt and deficit problems, then the IMF will have to do it for us.

Such transparent fear mongering will surely be seen for what it is. The same old exhausted elites using fear to hang on to power.

Conservative party leader, David Cameron’s claim that the Tories are the party of change is shown up as hollow nonsense.

The question that Clarke needs to answer is:

Come election day, if the polls are still indicating the likely outcome to be a hung parliament, what action will he personally be taking to save the country from the disaster he apparently believes will follow.

Image by P.vladi released under Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported